The development and utility of a novel scale that quantifies the glycemic progression toward type 1 diabetes over 6 months

J. M. Sosenko
J. S. Skyler
C. A. Beam
D. Boulware
J. L. Mahon
J. P. Krischer
C. J. Greenbaum
L. E. Rafkin
D. Matheson
K. C. Herold
J. P. Palmer

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: We developed a scale to serve as a potential end point for 6-month glycemic progression (PS6M) toward type 1 diabetes (T1D) in autoantibody-positive relatives of individuals with T1D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The PS6M was developed from Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) data and tested in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (PTP). It is the difference between 6-month glucose sum values (30-120 min oral glucose tolerance test values) and values predicted for nonprogressors. RESULTS: The PS6M predicted T1D in the PTP (P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating chacteristic curve was greater (P < 0.001) for the PS6M than for the baseline-to-6-month difference. PS6M values were higher in those with two or more autoantibodies, 30-0 min C-peptide values <2.00 ng/mL, or DPT-1 Risk Scores >7.00 (P < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: The PS6M is an indicator of short-term glycemic progression to T1D that could be a useful tool for assessing preventive treatments and biomarkers.